Brazilian Poll Shows Lula Leading Flavio Bolsonaro by 5 Points

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds the lead against his political opponent in a new opinion poll. The survey by Datafolha, released on Friday, July 24, shows the former president ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff for the 2026 presidential election.

According to the poll, Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), has 48 percent of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), has 43 percent. Nine percent of respondents said they would vote blank, null, or for no candidate, and one percent did not know or did not answer.

Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters in 139 cities on July 22 and 23. The margin of error is two percentage points, up or down.

The survey comes as the political landscape for the 2026 election begins to take shape. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has been positioning himself as a key figure in the conservative camp following his father’s political ban. In recent weeks, the senator has been rallying supporters at party events, including a convention for the Liberal Party, where he called on backers to mobilize for the upcoming race.

Lula, who has been in office since 2023, continues to maintain a solid base of support, particularly among lower-income voters and in the northeast region of the country. The Datafolha numbers indicate a competitive race, with the two candidates separated by five points within the poll’s margin of error.

The election is scheduled for October 2026, with a potential second round in late October if no candidate secures a majority in the first round.